- Founder & CEO of Inpharmation, Europe’s most respected pharma forecasting & pricing specialist consultancy.
- Gary has been involved in the pricing and/or forecasting of around half of the new molecular entity launches over the past 5 years.
- Author of Sales Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence Based Approach and Value Pricing for Market Access: Evidence-Based Pricing for Pharmaceuticals.
- The 6 proven principles for producing the most accurate forecasts.
- When and how to use epi-based vs. sales-based forecasts.
- How to build Market Access correctly into your forecasts.
- Market share forecasting, including the simple models that provide the best forecasts.
- Uptake models: Why products are taken up by the market at different speeds and how to model this.
- Extrapolation techniques: How to project a trend in the most accurate way.
- The sources of data and the advantages and disadvantages of different source types.
- How to deal with unique-to-pharma issues like lines of therapy, co-prescription, etc.
- You will learn the dos & don’ts during practical exercises and discussions of real-life examples, as well as learn from industry peers that deal with pharma forecasts on a regular basis.
- Receive an Excel-based forecasting tool which integrates all the techniques taught during the workshop, as well as Gary’s book 'Sales Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence Based Approach'.
Why You Should Attend
With every major business decision in pharma being based on a sales forecast, it is imperative that you know how to forecast (and challenge forecasts) accurately. Therefore, the focus of this course is on teaching the concepts, techniques and approaches which have been proven to work best for pharmaceuticals.
The Content: Unlike other forecasting courses, this programme teaches a multitude of modelling techniques and how to combine them in order to generate the most accurate results, as opposed to focusing on one single complex model. It is also pharma specific, meaning issues like market access are taken into account.
The Expert: Gary Johnson is Europe's most respected pharma forecasting & pricing expert and has authored the industry’s most authoritative books on pharma forecasting and pricing. His specialist consultancy, Inpharmation, has been involved in the pricing and/or forecasting of around half of the new molecular entity launches over the past five years.
Gary has trained 1000s of executives around the world. His presentations are constantly tweaked according to delegate feedback. They have thus evolved over the years and they are easy to understand, getting consistently very high customer feedback scores.
The Pharma Forecasting Course is the only available public training course delivered by Gary Johnson on the topic of pharma sales forecasting.
Agenda of The Pharma Forecasting Course
Important: all hours are noted in CET/Brussels Time, so carefully convert into your local time zone!
Short breaks will be offered throughout the day.
Welcome & General Introduction (~30 min)
The Right Approach to Forecasting (~1 h)
The Proven Rules of Good Forecasting (~1 h 30 min)
Structuring a Forecast (~45 min)
Extrapolation (~30 min)
The Impact of Product Profile on Your Market Share (~45 min)
Modelling Exercise – Part 1 (~45 min)
ECONOMETRICS - The Impact of Launch Order on Your Market Share (~30 min)
ECONOMETRICS – The Impact of Promotional Spend on Your Market Share (~15 min)
Building Market Access and Other Pharma Specific Considerations into Your Forecast (~1 h 30 min)
Forecasting How Quickly You Will Achieve Your Sales Potential (~1 h)
Modelling Exercise – Part 2 (~30 min)
The future of Forecasting: AI, Big Data, Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning (~30 min)
>> Click here if you wish to receive the PDF brochure of this course
The first day of this course takes the form of an interactive lecture, with the expert explaining theory around forecasting and forecast modelling. Gary’s storytelling approach to teaching helps make complex concepts simple to understand and easy to remember.
The second day is more practically focused and revolves around modelling a full epi-based forecast in stages using an Excel based tool (which you can take home). This exercise will be completed within groups and Gary will give further explanation of the techniques between each stage of building the forecast.
One of the most valuable aspects of attending any CELforPharma course is not only being able to have your specific questions answered by a leading expert, but also having the opportunity to share experiences and have in-depth discussions with your international peers.
|The typical audience size of our courses ranges from 6 to 24 (max) participants.|
Who Should Attend?
- Forecasters who want to build more evidence based approaches into their forecasts.
- Marketers who want to understand how to link forecasts to their real-world concerns (like the competitiveness of their product profile, promotional spend, speed to market etc.).
- Market researchers who want to know how to take data from surveys and audits and reflect them in forecasts.
- Market access and pricing executives who want to break down the silos that exist between forecasting and other functions and to understand how their concerns should be reflected in forecasts.
- As well as any other executive who has to produce or receive a forecast as a part of their professional role.
As this course is delivered by Gary Johnson, Founder & CEO of Inpharmation, a leading specialist in evidence based insights for the pharma Industry, executives from other professional service agencies should request approval prior to registering for this course. Please contact Annelies Swaan, Director Business Operations, for more information (firstname.lastname@example.org, tel +32 (0)2 709 01 42).
Below is a non-exhaustive list of past participants who have benefited from attending this course.
|Business Unit Director Immunology||Abbvie||Norway|
|Business Planning & Analysis Manager||Amgen||Netherlands|
|Associate Brand Director||Astellas||United Kingdom|
|Manager Business Development||AstraZeneca||Germany|
|Business Information Manager||Bayer Healthcare Pharmaceuticals||Netherlands|
|Global Business Analyst||Boehringer Ingelheim||Germany|
|Jr New Product Planning Manager||Chiesi||Italy|
|Head of Business Development||Chugai||United Kingdom|
|Marketing Manager - Global Generic Drugs||Fresenius Kabi||Germany|
|Business Development Manager||Galderma||France|
|Business Planning and Analysis Manager||GlaxoSmithKline||Spain|
|Lifecycle Management Leader EMEA||Janssen||Denmark|
|Market Projection Manager||LEO Pharma||France|
|Regional Market Access Manager||Lundbeck||Denmark|
|Manager, Region Europe Market Research and Business Analytics||Novartis||Portugal|
|Market Research Manager / Corporate BD||Onxeo||France|
|Supply Chain Co-ordinator||Otsuka||United Kingdom|
|New Business Lead, Global Commercial Development||Pfizer||USA|
|Financial Controller / HR / IT||Prostrakan||Germany|
|Marketing Leader Rheumatology /AVM Task Force Leader Switzerland||Roche||Switzerland|
|Manager Global Analytics and Systems, Global Sales Forecasting||Sandoz||Slovenia|
|Decision Support Executive||Sanofi||United Kingdom|
|Directeur Evaluation Marketing||Servier||France|
|Business Insights Analyst||Shire||Belgium|
|Business Intelligence Manager||Therabel||France|
|International Brand Manager||Tillotts Pharma||Switzerland|
|Director, New Product Planning||UCB||Belgium|
|Finance Project Analyst Manager||Vectura||United Kingdom|
Dates & Locations
Currently all CELforPharma courses are planned to only be held live online (hosted in Zoom) until international travel is back to normal.
29-30 April 2021, live online
22-23 June 2021, live online
7-8 October 2021, live online
2-3 December 2021, live online
Included in the Registration Fee
- Access to an expert led course in real-time, using an interactive platform for break-out rooms, whiteboard exercises, polling, plenary discussions and chats.
- Course material, which will be provided to you in both digital format (by email) and in hard copy (by post, so you can make notes during the course).
- Certificate of attendance signed by the expert and CELforPharma.
- Book “Sales Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence Based Approach” by Gary Johnson.
Team discounts can be offered to 3 or more delegates from the same company.
Contact Annelies Swaan, Director Business Operations, (email@example.com) for more details.
How to Register
- Click the "Register Here" button on this page.
- Choose a course date, then fill out your personal details and company / invoicing details.
- Choose to pay via bank transfer or by credit card.
- Click "Confirm Registration". You will be sent an automatic email confirming your registration followed by a personal email containing an invoice and further payment instructions.
For assistance in registering, raising a PO or invoicing, please do not hesitate to contact Kealeigh Steel.
(email: firstname.lastname@example.org or call: +32 2 709 01 45)
Transfer & Cancellation Policy
- If a registrant cannot attend the scheduled course, he/she can avoid any cancellation charge by sending a suitable replacement participant.
- Alternatively, the registrant can transfer once at no extra cost, until 3 weeks prior to the event, to another course held within one year of the original course date.
- Up to 6 weeks prior to the course: cancellation fee of € 400 per participant.
- Up to 5 weeks prior to the course: 25% of the invoiced registration fee.
- Up to 4 weeks prior to the course: 50% of the invoiced registration fee.
- Up to 3 weeks prior to the course: 75% of the invoiced registration fee.
- Fewer than 3 weeks or if no notification received: registrant liable to pay invoiced registration fee.
- If a registrant postpones his/her participation to a future course, and cancels again, no refund can be claimed for registration fees.