Expert insight by Dr Neal Hansen and Mitchell Cooke, faculty members of Managing Uncertainty & Risk in Pharma Marketing & Planning
The pharmaceutical marketing and planning landscape is evolving at an unprecedented pace. Scientific innovation is accelerating, competitors are moving faster, regulatory expectations are rising, healthcare systems are under growing pressure, and company budgets are under increasing scrutiny. In this environment, traditional linear planning models are no longer enough.
Today, the brands that win — and the teams that lead them — share a critical capability: the ability to anticipate, understand, and navigate uncertainty.
Yet many pharma Marketing & Planning teams still build strategies based primarily on what is known today, rather than what could unfold tomorrow. This gap is precisely where competitive advantage is gained — or lost.
📢 Understanding and Anticipating Uncertainty MUST Be Built Into All Planning
Pharma marketers face a convergence of macro forces reshaping the industry:
- tightening regulatory expectations and evolving evidentiary standards
- global economic instability and shifting payer behaviour
- societal scrutiny of pharma companies and products
- demographic shifts increasing disease burden
- AI transforming discovery, development, and decision-making
- the >$200B patent cliff approaching between 2025–2030
- geopolitical disruption affecting supply and distribution
These trends shape the context in which brand, launch, and tactical plans must be developed. But uncertainty doesn’t only live at the macro level.
On the ground, where Marketing & Planning teams operate, micro uncertainties surface daily:
- competitor data readouts
- evolving treatment guidelines
- emerging unmet needs
- fluctuating access dynamics
- supply chain vulnerabilities
- changes in HCP perceptions and behaviours
Together, these forces make one thing abundantly clear: Uncertainty is not a variable in pharma planning. It is the environment.
🎯 Why Identifying and Planning for Uncertainty Is Now a Core Marketing Capability
Forward-thinking pharma organisations are reframing how they approach uncertainty: not as a threat, but as a strategic asset. When Marketing & Planning teams systematically identify and plan for uncertainties, they unlock four major advantages:
Stronger, more resilient brand strategies
Teams that anticipate multiple plausible futures make smarter choices today — and avoid costly rework when things shift.
Earlier detection of opportunities
Uncertainty isn’t only about downside. Competitor delays, new screening trends, or shifting stakeholder attitudes often create windows for accelerated growth.
Greater credibility with leadership
Modern leadership teams expect marketers to articulate the why behind their assumptions. Those who understand uncertainty communicate with more authority and influence.
Proactive, not reactive, planning
By knowing what to watch and when to pivot, teams move from firefighting to future-shaping.
In a world defined by volatility, clarity becomes a competitive advantage.
📊 An Essential Discipline to Future-Proof Your Plans: Uncertainty Mapping
High-performing Marketing & Planning teams are adopting a structured approach known as Uncertainty Mapping, a rigorous and systematic method for uncovering what could impact brand success across internal, market, and competitive dimensions.
This includes examining:
- disease understanding
- market size and opportunity
- stakeholder beliefs
- competitor pipelines
- regulatory expectations
- access dynamics
- internal strategic shifts
From this, teams can identify the uncertainties that could impact their business, their base-case future (=the most realistic scenario), and alternative futures that could present risk or opportunity.
This becomes the foundation for strategic decisions, risk prioritisation, scenario planning, and market-shaping activities.
In other words, better inputs → better strategies → better outcomes.
🎓 If you want to:
- Identify the types and sources of uncertainty that need to be planned for as part of pharma marketing and planning at strategic and operational levels.
- Master the proven processes and tools such as risk prioritisation, situational analysis, and scenario planning to anticipate and manage uncertainty.
- Learn how to integrate uncertainty management into brand/franchise plans, launch plans, and country-level tactical planning.
- Develop the skills to communicate uncertainty clearly and convincingly to internal stakeholders.
- Gain hands-on experience in applying uncertainty management tools to realistic pharma marketing scenarios.
👉 Attend Dr Neal Hansen & Mitchell Cooke's highly praised 1-day course:
Managing Uncertainty & Risk in Pharma Marketing & Planning
Future-proofing Key Brand and Portfolio Plans to Drive Durability and Impact
With Dr Neal Hansen & Mitchell Cooke
