Expert insight from Gary Johnson | May 2025:
It is a cliché to say that “we live in uncertain times”. But right now, we do... The industry is facing a combination of macroeconomic and political shifts that make strategic planning more complex than ever.
According to Gary Johnson, faculty member for CELforPharma’s Essentials of Value Pricing for Successful Market Access course, the current environment presents "unprecedented uncertainties" for anyone involved in pharmaceutical pricing. Key global dynamics, from post-Covid economic adjustments to disruptive policy shifts in the United States, are changing the rules in real time.
One of the most immediate concerns is the evolving policy stance of the US administration. In April 2025, President Trump issued an executive order that within one year Medicare must improve its ability to get better value for high-priced drugs – beyond those covered by the current Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program. This move raises the spectre of international reference (“most favoured nation”) pricing in the USA. The different forms that international reference pricing might take moving forward could have varying major impacts on the pharma industry.
At the same time, Trump has reiterated promises to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals. The implications of this depend heavily on the type of product. Generic drugs, already priced very competitively in the US, offer little room to absorb extra costs. As a result, the burden of tariffs would likely shift to payers. In contrast, for high-priced drugs, tariffs will, in effect, increase the cost of goods sold, and this changes the optimal price.
Perhaps most importantly, the US remains the largest source of global profitability for the pharmaceutical industry. Any disruption in pricing dynamics within this market has the potential to affect revenue models across the entire sector.
These developments are not just background noise. They represent deep structural challenges that could reshape how pharmaceutical companies define and defend value in the years ahead.
💡 Strengthen your pricing strategy:
To navigate this complex environment, pricing professionals need more than short-term solutions. They require a strategic approach grounded in evidence, adaptability, and a clear understanding of value.
Join Gary’s course with Sam Johnson and gain practical tools and expert insights that will help you price effectively in a rapidly changing market:
🎓 If you want to learn about:
- An overview of payer types and of national pricing & market access systems around the world.
- The concepts and language of pharma pricing and market access that confuse many executives.
- The difference between setting prices and defending prices with health economics.
- Talking to payers using surveys, interviews, and AI to get the most accurate assessment of the achievable price.
- Using AI and econometrics to analyse payer behaviour and predict future pricing behaviour.
- How to anticipate the impact of the international pricing system on your prices around the globe.
👉 Attend Gary Johnson’s and Sam Johnson’s highly praised 2-day course:
Essentials of Value Pricing for Successful Market Access
With Gary Johnson & Sam Johnson
