The Pharma Forecasting Course

By attending this course:

	1	You will learn techniques and approaches that have been proven to work best for forecasting sales of pharmaceuticals – and not waste your time on what doesn’t work.
	2	You will be able to challenge the forecasts others have produced for you, and produce your own forecasts in most situations.
	3	Concepts will be explained in simple, non-mathematical terms. Concrete examples from the pharma industry are used rather than vague concepts.
	4	You will leave with a collection of techniques and principles that you can implement easily and immediately after the course.
	5	You will receive an Excel-based forecasting tool that integrates all the techniques taught and applied during the course. This ensures you leave with real hands-on ability to use the techniques.
	6	You will receive Gary’s book Sales Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence Based Approach, which will be a valuable reference to have with you.

 

What sets The Pharma Forecasting Course apart?

Gary Johnson is an award-winning expert-trainer who:

• Has consulted/forecast for every top 10 pharma company.
• Has forecast for every leading country and major therapy area.
• Is a finalist for the MCA Business Book of the Year Award.
• Is a semi-finalist for the Financial Times Global Business Book of the Year Award.
• Twice won the BHBIA (British Healthcare Business Intelligence Association) best paper award.
• Trained over 700 executives around the world. His presentations are constantly tweaked according to delegate feedback. They have thus evolved over the years so they are easy to understand and consistently get very high customer feedback scores.

Unlike other forecasting courses, in this programme:

• The focus is on techniques and approaches that have been proven to work best.
• Concepts are explained in simple, non-mathematical terms.
• Concrete examples are used rather than vague concepts.
• Delegates leave with a collection of techniques and principles that they can implement easily and immediately.

Who should attend?

The Pharma Forecasting Course is primarily designed for pharma marketers and market analyst functions who want to start off on the right foot in forecasting, as well as for advanced forecasters who want to review best practice and forecast even better. In addition, any marketing support function contributing to the forecasting process, as well as any executive wishing to be able to challenge the forecasts they receive from colleagues, will greatly benefit from participating.

While all course content is obviously relevant for forecasting sales of new products, the concepts and techniques taught at this course can be used for marketed drugs whenever something is happening in their market that may impact sales, e.g. new competitor products, product improvements etc.

Past participants

Bellow is a non-exhaustive list of delegates who participated in The Pharma Forecasting Course:

Business Development Manager	ALK-Abello	Denmark	testimonial
New Products Manager	Almirall	Spain
Business Planning & Analysis Manager	Amgen	Netherlands
Associate Brand Director	Astellas	UK	testimonial
Senior Manager Sales Administration	Astellas	UK	testimonial
Business Analyst	AstraZeneca	Romania
Head of Supply Chain	Bayer Schering	France
Busines Analysis Manager	Boehringer Ingelheim	Austria
International Product Manager	Boehringer Ingelheim	Germany
Senior Manager Market Research EMEA	Bristol-Myers Squibb	France	testimonial
Business Development Manager	Egis	Poland
Business Intelligence Manager	Grünenthal	Belgium
Marketing Manager	Helsinn Healthcare	Switzerland	testimonial
Global Portfolio Manager	Intendis	Germany	testimonial
VP, Licensing & New Business Development	Johnson & Johnson	Belgium
Analysis & Forecasting Manager	LEO Pharma	Denmark	testimonial
Marketing Manager	Medis	Slovenia
Business Intelligence Manager	Merck Sharp & Dohme	Belgium	testimonial
Project Lead Forecasting	Novartis	India	testimonial
Senior Business Analyst	Novo Nordisk	Netherlands
Business Development Analyst	Nycomed	Russia	testimonial
Product Manager	Organon	Sweden
Business Development Associate	Paion	Germany	testimonial
Head of Business Development & Licensing Department	Palau Pharma	Spain
Business Development Director	Roche	Switzerland
Supply Chain and Launch Manager	Sandoz	Romania	testimonial
Director Business Support & OTC	Sanofi-aventis	Belgium	testimonial
Sales Analytics & Reporting Analyst	Shire	UK	testimonial
Director International Sales and Marketing Training	Shire	UK	testimonial
Sales Force Effectiveness Director	Solvay	Germany
Brand Manager	UCB	Netherlands	testimonial
Global Patient & Market Insight Associate Manager	UCB	Belgium
Director New Product Commercialisation CNS	UCB	Belgium	testimonial
Business Development	Uriach	Spain
Marketing Manager	Takeda	UK	testimonial
Strategic Marketing Director	Takeda	UK	testimonial
National Project Manager	Wyeth	Netherlands	testimonial

Programme outline of The Pharma Forecasting Course

The course starts on day 1 at 09:30h with a welcome coffee and ends on day 2 at 16:00h.

Day 1 Welcome & General Introduction The Right Approach to Forecasting When to use models and when to use judgement. When to use extrapolation and when to use 'causal' (e.g. promotional spend). Whether to use a single forecasting model or more than one. The Proven Rules of Good Forecasting Why you should 'divide and conquer' when building a forecast. Why simple approaches work best (and what we mean by 'simple'). The other key rules that forty years of academic research into forecasting have proven. Structuring a Forecast What is meant by an 'epi-based forecast'. What is meant by a 'patient-based forecast'. What is meant by a 'sales-based forecast'. When to use each of the above. Extrapolation A simple totally non-mathematical explanation of how extrapolation techniques differ from each other. Which simple extrapolation techniques work best? Which ones are built into Excel and which ones require additional software. The Impact of Product Profile on Your Market Share The key idea behind conjoint analysis (the most common research technique for looking at the impact of product profile). How to build a simple conjoint-type model yourself, without a survey for forecasting.

GROUP DINNER Day 2 The Impact of Launch Order on Your Market Share How and why launch order affects your market share. How to build a simple launch-order model to predict the impact of your launch-order. The Impact of Promotional Spend on Your Market Share How and why promotional spend affects your market share. How to build a simple promotional spend model to predict the impact of promotional spend on your market share. How Pharmaceutical Market Share Models Differ from 'Standard' Forecasting Models How co-prescription affects shares. How 'lines of therapy' affect shares. How off-label usage affects shares. Forecasting How Quickly You Will Achieve Your Sales Potential Why therapy class uptakes tend to be 's-shaped'. Why brand market share uptakes tend to be 'r-shaped'. A simple non-mathematical explanation of how the famous Bass Model can help you predict the above. Flow/State models (new, repeat, switch etc.) and their role in forecasting uptakes. Where to Get The Data For Your Forecasts Compliance and continuation/persistence. Epidemiology sources and accuracies. Diagnosis and prescription rate sources and accuracies. Events (which events really matter and why most forecasts are "over-evented').

Learning methodology

This course optimally balances interactive lectures and group work on case studies that illustrate the theory and enable delegates to practice the tools & techniques. You will be provided with an Excel workbook (that you can take home on a CD-ROM) including simple exercises that you will complete at the end of each session. This will ensure you leave with real hands-on ability to use the techniques.

Meet the expert: Gary Johnson

As the founder and Managing Director of Inpharmation, a consultancy specialising in pharma forecasting and modelling, Gary Johnson works with the world's top 10 pharma companies and many more.

Gary is also the expert-trainer on our popular The Pharma Pricing Course for Pricing & Marketing Executives of which you can read testimonials from past participants here.

Prior to founding Inpharmation, Gary spent two decades in the pharma industry holding senior positions, such as General Manager and Head of Global Marketing with a number of major blue-chip pharma companies, including SmithKline Beecham, Fisons and Schwarz. Gary Johnson is a sought-after industry speaker and conference chairman. Winner of a number of speaking and best paper awards with the EphMRA and the BHBIA, he is the author of "Evidence Based Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals" - the definitive work on forecasting (and influencing) the sales of pharmaceutical products. Other books include "Monkey Business: Why the Way You Manage is a Million Years out of Date" - finalist for the MCA Book Prize.

Dates

7-8 October 2010, Barcelona
23-24 November 2010, Brussels

Interested in future dates?
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Venue & Accommodation

7-8 October 2010

This course takes place at the Hotel Barcelona Princess which is situated opposite the CCIB (Centre Convencions Internacional Barcelona), close to the metro station Fórum.

Hotel Barcelona Princess
Avda. Diagonal, 1
08019 Barcelona
Spain
Tel: +34 933 56 10 00

We have secured preferential room rates at this four-star superior hotel for our delegates. Registering three weeks or more prior to the course will secure your room at a preferential rate. Upon your registration, C.E.L.forpharma will send you a Hotel Barcelona Princess Accommodation Sheet to complete and send back.
Do not hesitate to contact Marie Stricklesse, Programme Coordinator, if you need assistance in this matter (marie.stricklesse@celforpharma.com ; tel +32(0)27092241).

23-24 November 2010

This course takes place at the Sheraton Airport Hotel & Conference Center which is situated opposite Brussels National Airport, literally at 2 minutes' walking distance from the arrival hall.

Sheraton Brussels Airport Hotel
Brussels National Airport
1930 Zaventem
Belgium
Tel: +32 (0) 2 710 80 00
Fax: +32 (0) 2 710 80 80

We have secured preferential room rates at this four-star hotel for our delegates. Registering three weeks or more prior to the course will secure your room at a preferential rate. Upon your registration, C.E.L.forpharma will send you a Sheraton Brussels Airport Hotel Accommodation Sheet to complete and send back.
Do not hesitate to contact Marie Stricklesse, Programme Coordinator, if you need assistance in this matter (marie.stricklesse@celforpharma.com ; tel +32(0)27092241)

Registration fee

7-8 October 2010 Course (FOR-14)		Price(*)
Registration before 20 August 2010		€2.450
Registration after 20 August 2010		€2.850

23-24 November 2010 Course (FOR-15)		Price(*)
Registration before 8 October 2010		€2.450
Registration after 8 October 2010		€2.850

* (VAT excl.)

Group discounts are offered as of 3 or more registrations from the same company.
Please contact  Marie Stricklesse (+32 2 709 22 41 or marie.stricklesse@celforpharma.com) for more information.

To register, please go to our online registration form.

Testimonials of The Pharma Forecasting Course

“The Pharma Forecasting Course provides good theoretical insight and a practical model that can be applied to many different cases. This workshop was useful in providing a perspective of forecasting.”

Can Sunata, Sales Force Effectiveness Manager, Astellas – Turkey

“Gary explains that forecasting principles include breaking it down and making it simple. Gary has an excellent style that includes breaking forecasting into the parts and making complex and various forecasting approaches simple and more intuitive”

Sam Morton, Senior Marketing Manager, Sanofi-aventis - France

“Especially recommended to people who work already for some time with forecasting, because Gary has gigabytes of valuable information to provide IF you ask questions! So do it, have a list of questions and you will get the answers, I am sure!”

Roland Adomaitis, Operations Manager Finland, Eli Lilly  - Lithuania

“Interesting content. Practical advice. Excellent organisation. Overall satisfied and willing to suggest it to my other colleagues.”

Dimitrios Tsourougiannis, Market Intelligence Manager,  Astellas – Greece

“Thanks Gary, this is a very good course with animated presentations and very helpful exercises.”

Lieve De Meutter, Business Intelligence Manager, Merck Sharp & Dohme – Belgium

“This is a great hands-on workshop. Gary is able to simplify pharma sales forecasting by breaking the process down and providing clarifying background information. Only an expert of his caliber can explain forecasting at such level of clarification.”

Koen Jacobs, Brand Manager, UCB – The Netherlands

“A very effective course, with simple examples as well as one integrated but staged exercise to work through over the 2 days.”

Avi Leaf, Marketing Manager, Takeda - UK

“Gary pitched things at the right level. His course offers a very nice mix of theoretical and practical content!”

Mark Darmody, Sales Analytics & Reporting Analyst, Shire - UK

"Very practical sessions, having the opportunity to correct some recurrent mistakes and clarify frequent doubts about the use of models in forecasting. Very good presentation skills, Gary!"

Juan Miguel Quiles Martinez, Marketing Manager, Solvay - Spain

“I am truly relieved we did not just play with a model but looked at the rationale and the logics behind it, stepping back from the details. Also, Gary’s knowledge of therapeutic markets spans a wide spectrum, covering both primary and specialist care markets. Very good course, thanks!”

Elena Cavalli, Associate Brand Director, Astellas – UK

“Gary has got the rare ability to shrink very complicated concepts into a very understandable discussion over only 2 days.”

Claudio Lezzi, Marketing Manager, Helsinn Healthcare - Switzerland

“Gary Johnson’s pharma forecasting course provides very insightful analyses and learning points.”

Peter Skov, Analysis & Forecasting Manager, LEO Pharma, Denmark

"An excellent rounded introduction to Pharmaceutical Forecasting. A quick tour through the key models over an interesting 2 days."

Jill Skinner, Director International Sales and Marketing Training, Shire - UK

"The Pharma Forecasting Course is a very good course, since it provided clear and actionable insights & tools. Both the overall content and Gary’s presentation skills are very good!"

Emmanuel Joubert, Senior Manager Market Research EMEA, Bristol-Myers Squibb - France

"Gary was engaging and an obvious expert who was able to pitch complicated issues at a level people could understand in a second language. The content of his forecasting seminar was very good: perfect combination of theory and practice! The academic foundation of the programme is something I appreciated strongly."

Strategic Marketing Director, Takeda - UK

"The Pharma Forecasting Course is developed and led by Gary Johnson, a very interesting and knowledgeable speaker. This course is definitely not a waste of time, whether you do forecast or not."

Ruslan Akhmadov, Business Development Analyst, Nycomed – Russia

"Gary Johnson is a good speaker with a lot of expertise and an inspiring look at forecasting."

Filip Schurgers, National Project Manager, Wyeth – Netherlands

"As I am involved in forecasting, I found the pharma forecasting course very useful in terms of defining concepts and learning the logic behind defending good forecasting methodologies."

Revati Nehru, Project Lead Forecasting, Novartis – India

"This is an excellent forecasting course for Asian beginners."

Atul Saxena, Project Lead Forecasting, Novartis – India

"The Pharma Forecasting Course is a very good course, simple and comprehensive at the same time."

Victoria Revilla, New Products Business Analyst, Almirall - Spain

"An outstanding course that offered all: a well-structured, understandable and comprehensive introduction to a complex subject, lots of examples from daily practice, while leaving sufficient time to clarify individual questions and providing the opportunity for working groups. A valuable course for both,  newcomers as well as experienced participants, presented by an excellent speaker. All in all very recommendable!"

Monika Schuessler,  Executive Manager New Business Development, Janssen-Cilag - Germany

“This is the right course if you want to learn the fundamentals of pharma forecasting from a very good teacher (i.e. Gary Johnson)”

Mazin Soubt, Global Brand Manager, Novartis - Switzerland

“An interesting overview of how we have to manage forecasts in pharma markets. I am convinced that The Pharma Forecasting Course of Gary Johnson is one of the best.”

Radu Amzoi, Supply Chain and Launch Manager, Sandoz - Romania

"An excellent course covering both theoretical and pragmatic issues related to pharma forecasting. Of value to those already experienced in different forecasting techniques and approaches, as well as the uninitiated."

Alun Davies, European Marketing Intelligence Manager, Astellas Pharma Europe - UK

"Gary’s presentation skills are very good and he clearly has a high level of expertise. This is a very interesting course explaining the concept of forecasting. It makes me look forward to do my next forecast!"

Sonja Buyle, Director New Product Commercialization CNS, UCB - Belgium

"The Pharma Forecasting course gave me a new view on the discipline. From something I viewed as very complex and blurred in mathematical models to a discipline that actually builds on a combination of common sense and simple models. Gary is an excellent teacher - always exemplifying with real life examples. I can highly recommend the course. "

Jacob Glenting, Business Development Manager, ALK-Abello - Denmark

"Gary does not only have an impressive expert knowledge, he is also a superb teacher and highly flexible regarding questions from the audience - a rare blend of talents! Thank you for the great seminar and it was really nice meeting you. "

Thomas Temme, Business Development Associate, Paion – Germany

"It was an excellent course & organization. Probably one of the best I ever had (many exercises, clear messages and methods)! Superb!"

Solvejg Nasert, Global Strategic Marketing & Sales - Market & Portfolio Development, Intendis GmbH - Germany

"An excellent overview of how to forecast in a rational way, as well as how to put into perspective used standards on the corporate or global level... Interesting and full of handy tips & tricks to improve and challenge forecasts!"

Kathleen Van den Eynde, Business Support & OTC Director, Sanofi-aventis - Belgium

"Gary is explaining the complex world of pharma forecasting in an amazingly practical and understandable way"

Matthias Fleischer, Sr. Manager Sales Administration, Astellas Pharma - United Kingdom

"Based on his knowledge and experience, Gary knows how to bring the complex world of forecasting to his audience in a simple and practical way. This course is gracefully simple in its concept, but complete in its content. The theory is made easily understandable with examples, exercises and group work"

Urbain Gressens, Manager Market Research & Forecasting EMS, Eli Lilly - Belgium

"A lot of basic rules on forecasting can be derived from common sense or previous experience, however this also makes it difficult to defend your forecast when challenged. Gary Johnson's seminar on forecasting provides a good overview of the rules that apply in forecasting and how these are objectively supported by research. After following this course not only will you be able to provide better and more accurate forecasts but you should also feel more confident in presenting and defending your assumptions, hypotheses and predictions."

Frank Demeulenaere, Associate Director New Product Commercialization CNS, UCB - Belgium

"Gary Johnson wants to become a “Pharma Forecasting Guru”. I personally think: he is not so far away from it! The course was very useful for daily practice. Gary is able to present and teach a- on a first look- not very exciting topic in a very exciting, convincing manner. He gives useful tools and his book, given to the participants of the course, is more than useful for after- reading and learning."

Ulrike Hartmann, Medical Product Manager, Astellas Pharma GmbH - Germany

"Interesting information presented in an easy-to-understand way, mixed with exercises and little games, as well as many good examples. Gary is well versed in all aspects of the course. He is very knowledgeable in both forecasting and the pharmaceutical market"

Ingrid Heyne, Desk Research Specialist - Patient & Market Insight, UCB - Belgium

"An Evidence Based Approach" immediately applicable to practice! A great approach to this tough topic"

Albano Attrice, Product Manager Infectiology, UCB - Belgium

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