|You will learn techniques and approaches that have been proven to work best for forecasting sales of pharmaceuticals – including pharma-specific drivers like market access, step-care, targeted therapies etc.|
|You will be able to challenge the forecasts others have produced for you, and produce your own forecasts in most situations.|
|Concepts will be explained in simple, non-mathematical terms. Concrete examples from the pharma industry are used rather than vague concepts.|
|You will leave with a collection of techniques and principles that you can implement easily and immediately after the course.|
|You will receive an Excel-based forecasting tool that integrates all the techniques taught and applied during the workshop. This ensures you leave with real hands-on ability to use the techniques.|
|You will receive Gary’s book Sales Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals: An Evidence Based Approach, which will be a valuable reference to have with you.|
Gary Johnson is an award-winning expert-trainer who:
Unlike other forecasting courses, in this programme:
- Has consulted/forecast for every top 10 pharma company.
- Expert in forecasting – but also all quantitative techniques, so that forecasting is tied in to market access, market research etc.
- Has forecast for every leading country and major therapy area.
- Finalist for the MCA Business Book of the Year Award and semi-finalist for the the Financial Times Global Business Book of the Year Award.
- Winner of the EphMRA and the BHBIA (British Healthcare Business Intelligence Association) best paper awards.
- Trained over 1000 executives around the world. His presentations are constantly tweaked according to delegate feedback. They have thus evolved over the years so they are easy to understand and consistently get very high customer feedback scores.
- The focus is on techniques and approaches that have been proven to work best.
- Concepts are explained in simple, non-mathematical terms.
- Concrete examples are used rather than vague concepts.
- Pharma-specific techniques which take into account issues like market-access and not generic forecasting techniques that struggle when applied to pharma.
- Delegates leave with a collection of techniques and principles that they can implement easily and immediately.
- Forecasters who want to build more evidence based approaches into their forecasts.
- Marketers who want to understand how to link forecasts to their real-world concerns (like the competitiveness of their product profile, promotional spend, speed to market etc.).
- Market researchers who want to know how to take data from surveys and audits and reflect them in forecasts.
- Market access and pricing executives who want to break down the silos that exist between forecasting and other functions and to understand how their concerns should be reflected in forecasts
- As well as any other executive who has to produce or receive a forecast as a part of their professional role.
Executives from professional services organizations should request approval from Gary Johnson prior to registering to this course.
Please contact Annelies Swaan, Sales Manager, firstname.lastname@example.org, tel +32 (0)2 709 01 42.
Below is a non-exhaustive list of executives who participated in The Pharma Forecasting Course:
Business Development Manager ALK-Abello Denmark testimonial Sales Analyst Alexion Pharmaceuticals Switzerland testimonial New Products Manager Almirall Spain Business Planning & Analysis Manager Amgen Netherlands Associate Brand Director Astellas UK testimonial Senior Manager Sales Administration Astellas UK testimonial Business Analyst AstraZeneca Romania Head of Supply Chain Bayer Schering France Business Intelligence Manager Boehringer Ingelheim UK testimonial Customer Value Management Associate Boehringer Ingelheim Australia testimonial Busines Analysis Manager Boehringer Ingelheim Austria International Product Manager Boehringer Ingelheim Germany Senior Manager Market Research EMEA Bristol-Myers Squibb France testimonial Commercial Assessment Manager - Corporate Marketing Chiesi Italy testimonial International Brand Manager Chiesi Italy testimonial New Product Advisor Chiesi Italy testimonial Business Development Manager Egis Poland Business Analyst Genzyme The Netherlands testimonial Business Intelligence Manager Grünenthal Belgium Product Manager Grünenthal Germany testimonial Marketing Manager Helsinn Healthcare Switzerland testimonial Global Portfolio Manager Intendis Germany testimonial Business Analyst Ipsen The Netherlands testimonial VP, Licensing & New Business Development Johnson & Johnson Belgium testimonial Marketing Information Manager Kowa UK Analysis & Forecasting Manager LEO Pharma Denmark testimonial Portfolio and Pricing Manager LEO Pharma Denmark testimonial Business Analyst LundBeck Greece testimonial Marketing Manager Medis Slovenia Associate Marketing Director Merck Serono Switzerland testimonial Associate Manager Business Intelligence Merck Serono Switzerland testimonial Business Intelligence Manager Merck Sharp & Dohme Belgium testimonial Project Lead Forecasting Novartis India testimonial Senior Business Analyst Novo Nordisk Netherlands Business Controlling Manager Nycomed Poland testimonial Business Development Analyst Nycomed Russia testimonial Product Manager Organon Sweden Business Development Associate Paion Germany testimonial Head of Business Development & Licensing Department Palau Pharma Spain Key Account Manager Pfizer Turkiye testimonial Pricing & Portfolio Commercialisation Manager Pfizer UK testimonial Manager Business Development Recardio Austria testimonial Market Research Manager Roche Germany testimonial Business Development Director Roche Switzerland Supply Chain and Launch Manager Sandoz Romania testimonial Director Business Support & OTC Sanofi-aventis Belgium testimonial Director Strategic Market Intelligence Sanofi Germany testimonial VP Strategic Planning & Commercial Excellence Shionogi UK testimonial Sales Analytics & Reporting Analyst Shire UK testimonial Director International Sales and Marketing Training Shire UK testimonial Sales Force Effectiveness Director Solvay Germany Brand Director Takeda United Kingdom testimonial Marketing Manager Takeda UK testimonial Strategic Marketing Director Takeda UK testimonial Supply & Demand Continuous Improvement Specialist Teva Spain testimonial Brand Manager UCB Netherlands testimonial Global Patient & Market Insight Associate Manager UCB Belgium Director New Product Commercialisation CNS UCB Belgium testimonial Director New Product Planning CNS UCB Belgium testimonial Head of Data Strategy and Reporting, Strategic Marketing Practice UCB Belgium testimonial Business Development Uriach Spain Business Development & Project Manager Vifor Pharma Switzerland testimonial National Project Manager Wyeth Netherlands testimonial
The course starts on day 1 at 09:30h with a welcome coffee and ends on day 2 at 16:00h.
Welcome & General Introduction
The Right Approach to Forecasting
- When to use models and when to use judgement.
- When to use extrapolation and when to use 'causal' (e.g. promotional spend).
- Whether to use a single forecasting model or more than one.
The Proven Rules of Good Forecasting
- Why you should 'divide and conquer' when building a forecast.
- Why simple approaches work best (and what we mean by 'simple').
- The other key rules that forty years of academic research into forecasting have proven.
Structuring a Forecast
- What is meant by an 'epi-based forecast'.
- What is meant by a 'patient-based forecast'.
- What is meant by a 'sales-based forecast'.
- Fitting market access into your forecast structure.
- When to use each of the above.
- A simple totally non-mathematical explanation of how extrapolation techniques differ from each other.
- Which simple extrapolation techniques work best?
- Which ones are built into Excel and which ones require additional software.
The Impact of Product Profile on Your Market Share
- The key idea behind conjoint analysis (the most common research technique for looking at the impact of product profile).
- How to build a simple conjoint-type model yourself, without a survey for forecasting.
The Impact of Launch Order on Your Market Share
- How and why launch order affects your market share.
- How to build a simple launch-order model to predict the impact of your launch-order.
The Impact of Promotional Spend on Your Market Share
- How and why promotional spend affects your market share.
- How to build a simple promotional spend model to predict the impact of promotional spend on your market share.
Building Market Access and Other Pharma Specific Considerations into Your Forecast
- How market access has different effects at different levels of your forecast.
- Simple market access modelling approaches.
- How co-prescription affects shares.
- How 'lines of therapy' affect shares.
- How off-label usage affects shares.
Forecasting How Quickly You Will Achieve Your Sales Potential
- Why therapy class uptakes tend to be 's-shaped'.
- Why brand market share uptakes tend to be 'r-shaped'.
- A simple non-mathematical explanation of how the famous Bass Model can help you predict the above.
- Flow/State models (new, repeat, switch etc.) and their role in forecasting uptakes.
Where to Get The Data For Your Forecasts
- Compliance and continuation/persistence.
- Epidemiology sources and accuracies.
- Diagnosis and prescription rate sources and accuracies.
- Events (which events really matter and why most forecasts are "over-evented').
This course optimally balances interactive lectures and group work on case studies that illustrate the theory and enable delegates to practice the tools & techniques. You will be provided with an Excel workbook (that you can take home on a CD-ROM) including simple exercises that you will complete at the end of each session. This will ensure you leave with real hands-on ability to use the techniques.
As the founder and Managing Director of Inpharmation, a consultancy specialising in sales forecasting and modelling for the pharmaceutical industry, Gary Johnson works with the world's top 10 pharma companies and many more.
Prior to founding Inpharmation, Gary spent two decades in the pharma industry holding senior positions, such as General Manager and Head of Global Marketing with a number of major blue-chip pharma companies, including SmithKline Beecham, Fisons and Schwarz. Gary Johnson is a sought-after industry speaker and conference chairman. Winner of a number of speaking and best paper awards with the EphMRA and the BHBIA, he is the author of "Evidence Based Forecasting for Pharmaceuticals" - the definitive work on forecasting (and influencing) the sales of pharmaceutical products. Other books include "Monkey Business: Why the Way You Manage is a Million Years out of Date" - finalist for the MCA Book Prize.
14-15 May 2014, Brussels
9-10 December 2014, Brussels
These courses take place at the Sheraton Airport Hotel & Conference Center which is situated opposite Brussels National Airport, literally at 2 minutes' walking distance from the arrival hall.
Sheraton Brussels Airport Hotel
Brussels National Airport
Tel: +32 27 10 80 00
Fax: +32 27 10 80 80
We have secured preferential room rates at this four-star hotel for our delegates. Registering three weeks or more prior to the course will secure your room at a preferential rate. Upon your registration, C.E.L.forpharma will send you a Sheraton Brussels Airport Hotel Accommodation Sheet to complete and send back.
Do not hesitate to contact Marie Stricklesse, Senior Programme Coordinator, if you need assistance in this matter. (email@example.com; tel +32(0)27090143)
25-26 November 2014, London
This course takes place at the Hilton London Paddington Hotel which is conveniently located 15 minutes from Heathrow Airport and connected by footbridge to Paddington Station.
Hilton London Paddington
146 Praed Street, Paddington,
London, W2 1 EE
Tel: +44 (0) 207 850 0500
Fax: +44 (0) 207 850 0600
We have secured preferential room rates at this hotel for our delegates. Registering three weeks or more prior to the course will secure your room at a preferential rate. Upon your registration, C.E.L.forpharma will send you a Hotel Accommodation Sheet to complete and send back.
Do not hesitate to contact Marie Stricklesse, Senior Programme Coordinator, if you need assistance in this matter. (firstname.lastname@example.org; tel +32(0)27090143)
Team discounts are offered as of 3 or more registrations from the same company.
14-15 May 2014 Course, Brussels (FOR-28) Price(*) Registration after 28 March 2014 €2.970
25-26 Nov. 2014 Course, London (FOR-29) Price(*) Registration before 10 October 2014 €2.670 Registration after 10 October 2014 €2.970
9-10 Dec. 2014 Course, Brussels (FOR-30) Price(*) Registration before 24 October 2014 €2.670 Registration after 24 October 2014 €2.970
* (VAT excl.)
To register, please go to our online registration form.
"Very well designed and delivered course. Gary mixes theory with practice in an engaging way and gave me some great tips and tricks on changing my forecasting approach!"
Tarik Djeddour, VP Strategic Planning & Commercial Excellence, Shionogi – UK (November 2013)
"I highly valued Gary's forecasting course, in particular because he illustrates the theory with many anecdotes and examples!"
Pascal Schär, Business Development & Project Manager, Vifor Pharma – Switzerland (October 2013)
"Gary's course was recommended to me by a colleague and I'm really glad I followed it. It's a very good course and fully met my expectations."
Benediekt Muylaert-Gelein, Head of Data Strategy and Reporting, Strategic Marketing Practice, UCB – Belgium (October 2013)
"Gary Johnson is a very competent expert who gave a very interesting introduction in this field!"
Harald Kattnig, Manager Business Development, Recardio – Austria (April 2013)
"The Pharma Forecasting Course with Gary Johnson is very useful and beneficial for all levels in pharma forecasting."
Javier Arilla, Supply & Demand Continuous Improvement Specialist, Teva – Spain (December 2012)
"This course did cover everything we had to learn to forecast. Highly recommended!"
Yoshi Kanezashi, Marketing Information Manager, Kowa – UK (December 2012)
"Hands-on and gave an excellent overview on forecasting techniques!"
Werner Braun, Director Strategic Market Intelligence, Sanofi – Germany (October 2012)
"Complex analysis made simple. A brilliant way of deep diving into forecasting in 2 days."
Juan Vergez, Associate Manager Business Intelligence, Merck Serono – Switzerland (June 2012)
"Excellent organized course with focus on practical execution and a lot of different examples from reality. Gary Johnson and an interesting various group made the course a perfect experience."
Sven Dehn, Market Research Manager, Roche – Germany (June 2012)
"Gary is engaging and does his best for all the participants to have them understand the content to full extent. He uses a lot of examples and exercises, so it was quite fun!"
Yuuki Ochiai, Business Intelligence Manager, Boehringer Ingelheim – UK (March 2012)
"Very good introduction to pharma forecasting with a lot of content. Gary is able to communicate his expertise very clearly!"
Lewis Pearson, Pricing & Portfolio Commercialisation Manager, Pfizer - UK (December 2011)
"An excellent grounding. The only drawback is that it leaves you wanting more."
Geoffrey Wyatt, Associate Marketing Director, Merck Serono - Switzerland (December 2011)
"Very insightful and practical forecasting event, offering useful tools and structured methodology for accurate and meaningful forecasting."
Ekaterina Smolkina, Business Analyst, Genzyme – The Netherlands (October 2011)
"Excellent lecturer. Well organized and nice structured course. Gary teaches with passion and uses simple examples and great comparisons that help in better understanding the complexity of the forecasting process."
Elisabetta Pani, New Product Advisor, Chiesi – Italy (October 2011)
"This was an interesting introduction to the theory of forecasting, and it has whetted my appetite to challenge our current forecasts."
Kate Irving, Brand Director, Takeda – UK (October 2011)
"Interesting and useful course. Especially for product managers."
Elena Pavlidou, Business Analyst, LundBeck – Greece (October 2011)
"Brilliant course, very clear and with specific advise relevant to the pharma industry. Gary is very forthcoming, sharing his 20 years experience and knowledge of forecasting in this industry."
Tatiana Freire, Customer Value Management Associate, Boehringer Ingelheim - Australia (June 2011)
"Valuable course by an excellent expert and passionate lecturer, shared with colleagues coming from all around the world."
Danilo Pelosi, Commercial Assessment Manager - Corporate Marketing, Chiesi - Italy (June 2011)
"This course has provided me with so much theory that I now can challenge the market forecasts in a much more qualified way than before attending this course."
Kirsten Rask Nielsen, Portfolio and Pricing Manager, LEO Pharma - Denmark (June 2011)
"A very good course to become more experienced in forecasting."
Rogier Woelderink, Business Analyst, Ipsen – The Netherlands
"Thanks for this interesting and enthusiastic forecasting conference!"
Elodie Privat, Sales Analyst, Alexion Pharmaceuticals – Switzerland
"Gary represents a high level of expertise. It is really helpful to analyse a current practice in my organisation and point the areas for improvement. The point is that after the course I know much more how to do that."
Slawomir Kawaler, Business Controlling Manager, Nycomed – Poland
"Quite inspiring course with significant insights for further implementation into business."
Almaz Miftakhov, Key Account Manager, Pfizer – Turkiye
"Very good overview and introduction! Gary Johnson perfectly structured this pharma forecasting course and offers lots of interesting information combined with a huge background of deep market experience."
Katharina Golomb, Product Manager, Grünenthal – Germany
"This forecasting workshop is an excellent review of fundamental concepts in pharma marketing and provides many simple insights that can be quickly used in practical applications."
Serkan Oray, Director New Product Planning CNS, UCB – Belgium
"This is the second C.E.L.forpharma course I attended. Quality confirmed!"
Barbara Ronca, International Brand Manager, Chiesi - Italy
“The Pharma Forecasting Event provides good theoretical insight and a practical model that can be applied to many different cases. This workshop was useful in providing a perspective of forecasting.”
Can Sunata, Sales Force Effectiveness Manager, Astellas – Turkey
“Gary explains that forecasting principles include breaking it down and making it simple. Gary has an excellent style that includes breaking forecasting into the parts and making complex and various forecasting approaches simple and more intuitive”
Sam Morton, Senior Marketing Manager, Sanofi-aventis - France
“Especially recommended to people who work already for some time with forecasting, because Gary has gigabytes of valuable information to provide IF you ask questions! So do it, have a list of questions and you will get the answers, I am sure!”
Roland Adomaitis, Operations Manager Finland, Eli Lilly - Lithuania
“Interesting content. Practical advice. Excellent organisation. Overall satisfied and willing to suggest it to my other colleagues.”
Dimitrios Tsourougiannis, Market Intelligence Manager, Astellas – Greece
“Thanks Gary, this is a very good course with animated presentations and very helpful exercises.”
Lieve De Meutter, Business Intelligence Manager, Merck Sharp & Dohme – Belgium
“This is a great hands-on workshop. Gary is able to simplify pharma sales forecasting by breaking the process down and providing clarifying background information. Only an expert of his caliber can explain forecasting at such level of clarification.”
Koen Jacobs, Brand Manager, UCB – The Netherlands
“A very effective course, with simple examples as well as one integrated but staged exercise to work through over the 2 days.”
Avi Leaf, Marketing Manager, Takeda - UK
“Gary pitched things at the right level. His course offers a very nice mix of theoretical and practical content!”
Mark Darmody, Sales Analytics & Reporting Analyst, Shire - UK
"Very practical sessions, having the opportunity to correct some recurrent mistakes and clarify frequent doubts about the use of forecasting models. Very good presentation skills, Gary!"
Juan Miguel Quiles Martinez, Marketing Manager, Solvay - Spain
“I am truly relieved we did not just play with a model but looked at the rationale and the logics behind it, stepping back from the details. Also, Gary’s knowledge of therapeutic markets spans a wide spectrum, covering both primary and specialist care markets. Very good course, thanks!”
Elena Cavalli, Associate Brand Director, Astellas – UK
“Gary has got the rare ability to shrink very complicated concepts into a very understandable discussion over only 2 days.”
Claudio Lezzi, Marketing Manager, Helsinn Healthcare - Switzerland
“Gary Johnson’s pharma forecasting conference provides very insightful analyses and learning points.”
Peter Skov, Analysis & Forecasting Manager, LEO Pharma, Denmark
"An excellent rounded introduction to Pharmaceutical Forecasting. A quick tour through the key models over an interesting 2 days."
Jill Skinner, Director International Sales and Marketing Training, Shire - UK
"The Pharma Forecasting Course is a very good course, since it provided clear and actionable insights & tools. Both the overall content and Gary’s presentation skills are very good!"
Emmanuel Joubert, Senior Manager Market Research EMEA, Bristol-Myers Squibb - France
"Gary was engaging and an obvious expert who was able to pitch complicated issues at a level people could understand in a second language. The content of his forecasting seminar was very good: perfect combination of theory and practice! The academic foundation of the programme is something I appreciated strongly."
Strategic Marketing Director, Takeda - UK
"The Pharma Forecasting Course is developed and led by Gary Johnson, a very interesting and knowledgeable speaker. This course is definitely not a waste of time, whether you do forecast or not."
Ruslan Akhmadov, Business Development Analyst, Nycomed – Russia
"Gary Johnson is a good speaker with a lot of expertise and an inspiring look at forecasting of pharmaceuticals."
Filip Schurgers, National Project Manager, Wyeth – Netherlands
"As I am involved in forecasting, I found the pharma forecasting course very useful in terms of defining concepts and learning the logic behind defending good forecasting methodologies."
Revati Nehru, Project Lead Forecasting, Novartis – India
"This is an excellent forecasting course for Asian beginners."
Atul Saxena, Project Lead Forecasting, Novartis – India
"The Pharma Forecasting Course is a very good course, simple and comprehensive at the same time."
Victoria Revilla, New Products Business Analyst, Almirall - Spain
"An outstanding course that offered all: a well-structured, understandable and comprehensive introduction to a complex subject, lots of examples from daily practice, while leaving sufficient time to clarify individual questions and providing the opportunity for working groups. A valuable course for both, newcomers as well as experienced participants, presented by an excellent speaker. All in all very recommendable!"
Monika Schuessler, Executive Manager New Business Development, Janssen-Cilag - Germany
“This is the right course if you want to learn the fundamentals of pharma forecasting from a very good teacher (i.e. Gary Johnson)”
Mazin Soubt, Global Brand Manager, Novartis - Switzerland
“An interesting overview of how we have to manage forecasts in pharma markets. I am convinced that The Pharma Forecasting Course of Gary Johnson is one of the best.”
Radu Amzoi, Supply Chain and Launch Manager, Sandoz - Romania
"An excellent course covering both theoretical and pragmatic issues related to pharma forecasting. Of value to those already experienced in different forecasting techniques and approaches, as well as the uninitiated."
Alun Davies, European Marketing Intelligence Manager, Astellas Pharma Europe - UK
"Gary’s presentation skills are very good and he clearly has a high level of expertise. This is a very interesting course explaining the concept of forecasting. It makes me look forward to do my next forecast!"
Sonja Buyle, Director New Product Commercialization CNS, UCB - Belgium
"The Pharma Forecasting course gave me a new view on the discipline. From something I viewed as very complex and blurred in mathematical models to a discipline that actually builds on a combination of common sense and simple models. Gary is an excellent teacher - always exemplifying with real life examples. I can highly recommend the course. "
Jacob Glenting, Business Development Manager, ALK-Abello - Denmark
"Gary does not only have an impressive expert knowledge, he is also a superb teacher and highly flexible regarding questions from the audience - a rare blend of talents! Thank you for the great seminar and it was really nice meeting you. "
Thomas Temme, Business Development Associate, Paion – Germany
"It was an excellent course & organization. Probably one of the best I ever had (many exercises, clear messages and methods)! Superb!"
Solvejg Nasert, Global Strategic Marketing & Sales - Market & Portfolio Development, Intendis GmbH - Germany
"An excellent overview of how to forecast sales of pharmaceuticals in a rational way, as well as how to put into perspective used standards on the corporate or global level... Interesting and full of handy tips & tricks to improve and challenge forecasts!"
Kathleen Van den Eynde, Business Support & OTC Director, Sanofi-aventis - Belgium
"Gary is explaining the complex world of forecasting in pharma in an amazingly practical and understandable way"
Matthias Fleischer, Sr. Manager Sales Administration, Astellas Pharma - United Kingdom
"Based on his knowledge and experience, Gary knows how to bring the complex world of forecasting to his audience in a simple and practical way. This course is gracefully simple in its concept, but complete in its content. The theory is made easily understandable with examples, exercises and group work"
Urbain Gressens, Manager Market Research & Forecasting EMS, Eli Lilly - Belgium
"A lot of basic rules on forecasting can be derived from common sense or previous experience, however this also makes it difficult to defend your forecast when challenged. Gary Johnson's seminar on forecasting provides a good overview of the rules that apply in forecasting and how these are objectively supported by research. After following this course not only will you be able to provide better and more accurate forecasts but you should also feel more confident in presenting and defending your assumptions, hypotheses and predictions."
Frank Demeulenaere, Associate Director New Product Commercialization CNS, UCB - Belgium
"Gary Johnson wants to become a “Pharma Forecasting Guru”. I personally think: he is not so far away from it! The course was very useful for daily practice. Gary is able to present and teach a - on a first look - not very exciting topic in a very exciting, convincing manner. He gives useful tools and his book, given to the participants of the course, is more than useful for after-reading and learning."
Ulrike Hartmann, Medical Product Manager, Astellas Pharma GmbH - Germany
"Interesting information presented in an easy-to-understand way, mixed with exercises and little games, as well as many good examples. Gary is well versed in all aspects of the course. He is very knowledgeable in both forecasting and the pharmaceutical market"
Ingrid Heyne, Desk Research Specialist - Patient & Market Insight, UCB - Belgium
"An Evidence Based Approach" immediately applicable to practice! A great approach to this tough topic"
Albano Attrice, Product Manager Infectiology, UCB - Belgium